Tesla stock
Key swing factors for Tesla stock discuss by Wolfe In 2024
In a Monday note, analysts at Wolfe Research said that the main swing factors for Telsa stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) have improved somewhat, but that there is still uncertainty.
According to Wolfe Research, fresh vehicle deliveries will be one of the key swing factors. The management has said it expects 2024 deliveries to be on par with-2023 at around 1.75mln units; Wolf has a lower expectation for 2024.
“We estimate that multiplying Q1 deliveries by 4 would get us to 1.55 MM units. We think the ongoing process of selling cars in the off-season (namely in China and NA), could take that figure up by 65k or so,” said the investment bank.
Another key factor given was cost savings. The firm said that Tesla are doing very well at cost savings in the first quarter.
Wolfe Research remain confident in Tesla’s Cyber truck ramp-up and have assumed 55mln units for 2024, 125mln in 2025.
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“Pricing should remain elevated although we don’t see the vehicle moving into gross profit till later this year on a run rate of 125k units,” said the firm. “And longer-term, Cyber truck profitability is likely to remain below that of TSLA’s other products because it has a much larger battery pack (123 kwh versus75 kwh for other vehicles) which is more difficult to make and burn down rapidly.”
Finally, in 2024 relative to last year operating expenses are expected to stay more or less flat (around $7.8bn) with the recent announcements of headcount reductions largely offsetting investments/operating costs related to AI.
“While the outlook for Tesla does seem to have improved compared to a few weeks ago (when it looked like they were going all-in on AI/Autonomy), there still is uncertainty,” said analysts.Wolf also believes that we should keep an eye out for next year’s progress on profit margins and whether more capital will be deployed monetizing infrastructure.
